The latest CROP poll shows support for the Conservatives in Quebec just 1 point lower than the Bloc. In terms of seats this still means the CPC and Liberals will tie at about 20 with the other 35 going to the BQ.
However, there are at least 3 things to keep in mind that make this better for the Conservatives:
1. Momentum is definitely with the Conservatives. Not over the past 2 polls - as I said, they are consistent, but overall and when looking at a longer range. Dion continues to fall.
2. The Conservatives are likely to out-campaign the Liberals and BQ during the election. Funding is part of the issue but Harper is simply a better, smarter politician than Dion.
3. The 1,700 members of the 5th Canadian Mechanized Brigade Group based at Canadian Forces Base Valcartier, Quebec will be coming home soon. With high spirits and very few casualties their return will effectively remove the Afghanistan issue as a problem for the Conservatives.
Quebecois, having all but rejected separatism, may be in the process of disengaging from the Bloc as well. The once “scary” Conservatives having given Quebec nation status and redirected billions of dollars to redress the fiscal imbalance might be soon rewarded with enough new Quebec MPs to form a majority government.